You are given the following information on losses paid for each of AY1 through AY4:
Incremental Loss Payments through Development Year | ||||||
Accident Year | Earned Premium | Expected Loss Ratio | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
AY1 | 35,500 | 0.71 | 10,500 | 7,500 | 4,800 | 1,340 |
AY2 | 31,200 | 0.73 | 13,050 | 5,025 | 1,400 | |
AY3 | X | 0.75 | 12,500 | 7,250 | ||
AY4 | X + 5,000 | 0.75 | 18,400 |
The estimated loss reserve using the expected loss ratio method is 43,412.
Calculate X.
- 48,964
- 49,674
- 51,875
- 52,174
- 54,785
You are given the following information on losses paid for each of AY1 through AY4:
Incremental Loss Payments through Development Year | ||||||
Accident Year | Earned Premium | Expected Loss Ratio | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
AY1 | 20,500 | 0.85 | 6,100 | 4,500 | 3,800 | 2,340 |
AY2 | 30,000 | 0.7 | 15,100 | 4,825 | 1,200 | |
AY3 | 27,500 | 0.8 | 15,500 | 4,250 | ||
AY4 | 31,250 | 0.75 | 20,100 |
Estimate the loss reserve using the expected loss ratio method.
- 5,500
- 5,800
- 6,100
- 6,300
- 6,500
You are given:
- Earned premium in CY1 was 500,000.
- Earned premium growth through CY3 has been constant at 10% per year (compounded).
- The expected loss ratio for AY1 is 40%.
- As of December 31, CY3, the expected loss ratio has increased 3 percentage points each accident year
- Selected incurred loss development factors are as follows:
12 to 24 months | 1.25 |
24 to 36 months | 1.2 |
36 to 48 months | 1.1 |
48 to 60 months | 1.07 |
60 to 72 months | 1.05 |
72 to ultimate | 1.000 |
Calculate the total IBNR reserve as of December 31, CY3 using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.
- 240,000
- 260,000
- 290,000
- 310,000
- 340,000
Cumulative Loss Payments through Development Month | ||||||
Accident Year | Earned Premium | Expected Loss Ratio | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
AY5 | 19,000 | 0.90 | 4,850 | 9,700 | 14,100 | 16,200 |
AY6 | 20,000 | 0.85 | 5,150 | 10,300 | 14,900 | |
AY7 | 21,000 | 0.91 | 5,400 | 10,800 | ||
AY8 | 22,000 | 0.88 | 7,200 |
There is no development past 48 months.
Calculate the indicated loss reserve using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method and volume-weighted average loss development factors.
- 22,600
- 23,400
- 24,200
- 25,300
- 26,200
You are given:
-
Accident Year Cumulative Paid Losses through Development Year Earned premium 0 1 2 3 4 5 AY4 1,400 5,200 7,300 8,800 9,800 9,800 18,000 AY5 2,200 6,400 8,800 10,200 11,500
20,000 AY6 2,500 7,500 10,700 12,600
25,000 AY7 2,800 8,700 12,900
26,000 AY8 2,500 7,900
27,000 AY9 2,600
28,000 - The expected loss ratio for each Accident Year is 0.550.
Calculate the total loss reserve using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method and three-year arithmetic average paid loss development factors.
- 21,800
- 22,500
- 23,600
- 24,700
- 25,400
You are given:
- An insurance company was formed to write workers compensation business in CY1.
- Earned premium in CY1 was 1,000,000.
- Earned premium growth through CY3 has been constant at 20% per year (compounded).
- The expected loss ratio for AY1 is 60%.
- As of December 31, CY3, the company’s reserving actuary believes the expected loss ratio has increased two percentage points each accident year since the company’s inception.
- Selected incurred loss development factors are as follows:
12 to 24 months | 1.500 |
24 to 36 months | 1.336 |
36 to 48 months | 1.126 |
48 to 60 months | 1.057 |
60 to 72 months | 1.050 |
72 to ultimate | 1.000 |
Calculate the total IBNR reserve as of December 31, CY3 using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.
- 964,000
- 966,000
- 968,000
- 970,000
- 972,000
You are given the following information:
- Case reserves = 187,047
- Losses paid-to-date = 243,005
- Age-to-ultimate incurred loss development factor = 1.08
- IBNR using Bornhuetter-Ferguson method = 47,387
Calculate the absolute difference in the IBNR based on the chain-ladder method and the expected loss ratio method.
- 12,983
- 43,787
- 98,101
- 146,754
- 175,268
You are given the following information:
- Reported claims = 255,000
- IBNR using Bornhuetter-Ferguson method = 95,000
- IBNR using the chain ladder method = 110,000
Calculate the expected ultimate loss.
- 285,000
- 300,000
- 315,000
- 350,000
- 365,000
An actuary is establishing reserves for a group of policies as of December 31, CY3. You are given the following table of reserve estimates for AY1 and AY2:
Reserve estimates as of December 31, CY3 | |||
[math]R_{BF}[/math] | [math]R_{LR}[/math] | [math]R_{CL}[/math] | |
AY1 | 400,000 | 250,000 | 437,500 |
AY2 | 1,120,000 | 1,200,000 | 1,050,000 |
where [math]R_{BF}[/math] is the loss reserve under the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, [math]R_{LR}[/math] is the loss reserve under the Expected Loss Ratio method, and [math]R_{CL}[/math] is the loss reserve under the Chain Ladder method.
Calculate [math]f_2[/math] , the loss development factor from the paid-loss-development triangle at duration 2.
- 1.250
- 1.500
- 1.875
- 2.150
- 2.500
Cumulative Loss Payments through Development Month | ||||||
Accident Year | Earned Premium | Expected Loss Ratio | 12 | 24 | 36 | |
AY1 | 9,500 | 0.7 | 5,250 | 6,700 | 7,500 | |
AY2 | 10,000 | 0.72 | 5,250 | 7,300 | ||
AY3 | 11,500 | 0.75 | 6,550 |
There is no development past 36 months.
Calculate the indicated loss reserve using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method and volume-weighted average loss development factors.
- 3,400
- 3,600
- 3,700
- 3,800
- 4,000