excans:8c39fe6a58: Difference between revisions
From Stochiki
(Created page with "'''Key: D''' The smoothed forecast at 100 is 0.2(100.2) + 0.8(95.1) = 96.1. This is also the forecast at 102. The smoothed values are at 99: 0.2(95.1) + 0.8(89.9) = 9...") |
mNo edit summary |
||
| Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
'''Key: | '''Key: B''' | ||
The | The three one-step predicted values are 12+2.25 = 14.25; 15+2.25 = 17.25; and 21+2.25 = 23.25. | ||
The errors are 15 – 14.25 = 0.75; 21 – 17.25 = 3.75; and 22 – 23.25 = –1.25. | |||
F = (0.75 + 3.75 – 1.25)/3 = 1.083 | |||
G = (0.75<sup>2</sup> + 3.75<sup>2</sup> + 1.25<sup>2</sup>)/3 = 5.396 | |||
The | The absolute difference is 4.313. | ||
{{soacopyright | 2023}} | {{soacopyright | 2023}} | ||
Latest revision as of 17:27, 26 May 2023
Key: B
The three one-step predicted values are 12+2.25 = 14.25; 15+2.25 = 17.25; and 21+2.25 = 23.25.
The errors are 15 – 14.25 = 0.75; 21 – 17.25 = 3.75; and 22 – 23.25 = –1.25.
F = (0.75 + 3.75 – 1.25)/3 = 1.083
G = (0.752 + 3.752 + 1.252)/3 = 5.396
The absolute difference is 4.313.
Copyright 2023. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois. Reproduced with permission.