exercise:De00985349: Difference between revisions
(Created page with "<div class="d-none"><math> \newcommand{\NA}{{\rm NA}} \newcommand{\mat}[1]{{\bf#1}} \newcommand{\exref}[1]{\ref{##1}} \newcommand{\secstoprocess}{\all} \newcommand{\NA}{{\rm NA}} \newcommand{\mathds}{\mathbb}</math></div> In an upcoming national election for the President of the United States, a pollster plans to predict the winner of the popular vote by taking a random sample of 1000 voters and declaring that the winner will be the one obtaining the most votes in...") |
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In an upcoming national election for the President of the United States, a pollster plans to predict the winner of the popular vote by taking a random | |||
In an upcoming national election for the President of the United States, a | |||
pollster plans to predict the winner of the popular vote by taking a random | |||
sample | sample | ||
of 1000 voters and declaring that the winner will be the one obtaining the | of 1000 voters and declaring that the winner will be the one obtaining the | ||
| Line 21: | Line 13: | ||
the population plan to vote for the Republican candidate; first with a sample of 1000 and then | the population plan to vote for the Republican candidate; first with a sample of 1000 and then | ||
with a sample of 3000. (The Gallup Poll uses about 3000.) (This idea | with a sample of 3000. (The Gallup Poll uses about 3000.) (This idea | ||
is discussed further in [[guide: | is discussed further in [[guide:146f3c94d0|Central Limit Theorem]].) | ||
Latest revision as of 21:24, 12 June 2024
In an upcoming national election for the President of the United States, a pollster plans to predict the winner of the popular vote by taking a random sample of 1000 voters and declaring that the winner will be the one obtaining the most votes in his sample. Suppose that 48 percent of the voters plan to vote for the Republican candidate and 52 percent plan to vote for the Democratic candidate. To get some idea of how reasonable the pollster's plan is, write a program to make this prediction by simulation. Repeat the simulation 100 times and see how many times the pollster's prediction would come true. Repeat your experiment, assuming now that 49 percent of the population plan to vote for the Republican candidate; first with a sample of 1000 and then with a sample of 3000. (The Gallup Poll uses about 3000.) (This idea is discussed further in Central Limit Theorem.)