exercise:26608b6277: Difference between revisions

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An insurance company issues 1250 vision care insurance policies. The number of claims filed by a policyholder under a vision care insurance policy during one year is a Poisson random variable with mean 2. Assume the numbers of claims filed by different policyholders are mutually independent.
A tour operator has a bus that can accommodate 20 tourists. The operator knows that tourists may not show up, so he sells 21 tickets. The probability that an individual tourist will not show up is 0.02, independent of all other tourists.
 
Each ticket costs 50, and is non-refundable if a tourist fails to show up. If a tourist shows up and a seat is not available, the tour operator has to pay 100 (ticket cost + 50 penalty) to the tourist.
Calculate the approximate probability that there is a total of between 2450 and 2600 claims during a one-year period?
Calculate the expected revenue of the tour operator.
 
<ul class="mw-excansopts">
<ul class="mw-excansopts">
<li>0.68</li>
<li>955</li>
<li>0.82</li>
<li>962</li>
<li>0.87</li>
<li>967</li>
<li>0.95</li>
<li>976</li>
<li>1.00</li>
<li>985</li>
</ul>
</ul>


{{soacopyright | 2023}}
{{soacopyright | 2023}}

Latest revision as of 21:43, 3 May 2023

A tour operator has a bus that can accommodate 20 tourists. The operator knows that tourists may not show up, so he sells 21 tickets. The probability that an individual tourist will not show up is 0.02, independent of all other tourists. Each ticket costs 50, and is non-refundable if a tourist fails to show up. If a tourist shows up and a seat is not available, the tour operator has to pay 100 (ticket cost + 50 penalty) to the tourist. Calculate the expected revenue of the tour operator.

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Copyright 2023. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois. Reproduced with permission.