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Latest revision as of 10:10, 28 April 2023

Solution: A

For i = 1, 2, let [math]R_i[/math] = event that a red ball is drawn form urn i, and [math]B_i[/math] = event that a blue ball is drawn from urn i .

Then if x is the number of blue balls in urn 2,

[[math]] \begin{align*} 0.44 &= \operatorname{P}[( R1 ∩ R2 ) ∪ ( B1 ∩ B2 )] \\ &= \operatorname{P}[ R1 ∩ R2 ] + \operatorname{P}[ B1 ∩ B2 ] \\ &= \operatorname{P}[ R1 ] \operatorname{P}[ R2 ] + \operatorname{P}[ B1 ] \operatorname{P}[ B2 ] \\ &= \frac{4}{10} \frac{16}{x+16} + \frac{6}{16} \frac{x}{x+16} \end{align*} [[/math]]

Therefore,

[[math]] \begin{align*} 2.2 &= \frac{32}{x+16} + \frac{3x}{x+16} \\ 2.2 x + 35.2 &= 3 x + 32 \\ 0.8 x &= 3.2 \\ x &= 4. \end{align*} [[/math]]

Copyright 2023. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois. Reproduced with permission.