[math] \newcommand{\NA}{{\rm NA}} \newcommand{\mat}[1]{{\bf#1}} \newcommand{\exref}[1]{\ref{##1}} \newcommand{\secstoprocess}{\all} \newcommand{\NA}{{\rm NA}} \newcommand{\mathds}{\mathbb}[/math]

Show that the stepping stone model (Example \ref{exam

11.1.10}) is an absorbing Markov chain. Assume that you are playing a game with red and green squares, in which your fortune at any time is equal to the proportion of red squares at that time. Give an argument to show that this is a fair game in the sense that your expected winning after each step is just what it was before this step. Hint: Show that for every possible outcome in which your fortune will decrease by one there is another outcome of exactly the same probability where it will increase by one.

Use this fact and the results of Exercise Exercise to show that the probability that a particular color wins out is equal to the proportion of squares that are initially of this color.