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May 13'23

Exercise

For a group of policies, you are given:

  1. Losses follow the distribution function
    [[math]] F(x) = 1-\theta/x, \, x \gt \theta [[/math]]
  2. A sample of 20 losses resulted in the following:
    Interval Number of losses
    (0,10] 9
    (10,25] 6
    (25,[math]\infty[/math]) 5

Calculate the maximum likelihood estimate of [math]\theta[/math].

  • 5.00
  • 5.50
  • 5.75
  • 6.00
  • 6.25

Copyright 2023. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois. Reproduced with permission.

May 13'23

Key: B

[[math]] \begin{aligned} L(\theta) &= \left( \frac{\theta}{10}\right)^9 \left( \frac{\theta}{10} - \frac{\theta}{25} \right)^6 \left( \frac{\theta}{25}\right)^5 \propto (10-\theta)^9 \theta^{11} \\ l(\theta) &= 9 \ln(10 − \theta ) + 11 \ln(\theta ) \\ l^{'}(\theta) &= - \frac{9}{10-\theta} + \frac{11}{\theta} = 0 \\ 11(10-\theta) &= 9 \theta \\ 110 &= 20\theta \\ \theta &= 110/20 = 5.5 \end{aligned} [[/math]]

Copyright 2023. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois. Reproduced with permission.

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