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BBy Bot
Jun 09'24

Exercise

[math] \newcommand{\NA}{{\rm NA}} \newcommand{\mat}[1]{{\bf#1}} \newcommand{\exref}[1]{\ref{##1}} \newcommand{\secstoprocess}{\all} \newcommand{\NA}{{\rm NA}} \newcommand{\mathds}{\mathbb}[/math]

Previous experience with a drug suggests that the probability [math]p[/math] that

the drug is effective is a random quantity having a beta density with parameters [math]\alpha = 2[/math] and [math]\beta = 3[/math]. The drug is used on ten subjects and found to be successful in four out of the ten patients. What density should we now assign to the probability [math]p[/math]? What is the probability that the drug will be successful the next time it is used?