Exercise
The psychologist Tversky and his colleagues[Notes 1] say that about four out of five people will answer (a) to the following question: A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital about 45 babies are born each day, and in the smaller hospital 15 babies are born each day. Although the overall proportion of boys is about 50 percent, the actual proportion at either hospital may be more or less than 50 percent on any day. At the end of a year, which hospital will have the greater number of days on which more than 60 percent of the babies born were boys?
- the large hospital
- the small hospital
- neither---the number of days will be about the same.
Assume that the probability that a baby is a boy is .5 (actual estimates make this more like .513). Decide, by simulation, what the right answer is to the question. Can you suggest why so many people go wrong?
Notes
- See K. McKean, “Decisions, Decisions,” Discover, June 1985, pp. 22--31. Kevin McKean, Discover Magazine, copyright 1987 Family Media, Inc. Reprinted with permission. This popular article reports on the work of Tverksy et. al. in Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982).