ABy Admin
Jul 25'24

Exercise

The exposure is split into three geographic regions: region A, region B and region C. The following accident year 1 data is available:

Region Current relativity Exposure Earned Premium at Current Rates Ultimate Loss
A 1 4,000 500,000 425,000
B 1.2 2,500 375,000 350,000
C 1.125 1,000 140,625 100,000

Suppose the following is true:

  • Policies are annual.
  • Loss cost inflation is 4% per annum.
  • The insurer is targeting an 12% overall increase in rates.

Using the loss ratio method, determine the new rates, effective for calendar year 3, for region C.

  • 124.55
  • 128.66
  • 130
  • 137.25
  • 155.4
ABy Admin
Jul 25'24

According to the loss ratio method, the indicated differential change factor for region [math]i[/math] equals the projected loss ratio for region [math]i[/math] divided by the projected loss ratio for the base level:

Region [math]i[/math] [math]R_{i,I}/R_{i,C}[/math] [math]R_{i,I} [/math]
A 1 1
B 1.098 1.3176
C 0.8366 0.9412

Given a targeted overall change factor of 1.12, the indicated change factor for the base rate equals

[[math]] 1.12 \cdot \frac{\sum_{i} w_i R_{C,i}}{\sum_{i} w_i R_{I,i}} = 1.105. [[/math]]

Hence the base rate should be increased by 10.5%. The earned premium at current rates for region A's accident year 1 equals $500,000 with an exposure of 4,000; therefore, the current base rate is $125 per exposure unit. Since we have the current base rate, we can derive the rates for each region using the indicated rate differentials derived above:

Region New Rate per Exposure Unit
A $138.13
B $182
C $130
00